Posted on: April 30, 2009 1:30 pm
I am starting this blog entry to spark a friendly debate between players who favor one method of scoring over the other.
For my taste H2H is for casual players who like nothing more than to hear themselves talk (smack talk) and Roto scoring is for the hard core player who really wants to test their knowledge and skill. No offense to you H2H junkies, I have done both kinds of leagues for multiple years in multiple sports, and H2H just doesn't compare. But hey, that is just one guys opinion.
Posted on: March 31, 2009 1:49 pm
Anyone see that farce of a fantasy special on MLB network? What I thought might be information TV turned out to be a comedy special. Some (a small amount overall) of the info was correct and useful but the rest had me salivating at the idea of doing a league with those guys and running from wire to wire on their "fantasy expertise". Please MLB you can get better "guru's" on than those guys. I may be remembering incorrectly but I believe they were from Fantasy 411.
I practically choked when the guy advised taking Chris Davis in the 4th round. Seriously man... I really like the kid too but in the 4th round you have got to be joking. He should go at least 3 rounds later if not more. Then there was the advice to go closers early. I hope all my competition listens to them so I can run away with every league I do.
Posted on: March 25, 2009 4:30 pm
Today, I would like to talk about projecting stats for fantasy baseball. I'm sure most if not all of us are aware of the law of averages and the applied practice of using a players previous 3 seasons to come up with their projected numbers for an upcoming season. I am totally aware that this method typically provides the most reliable results but even that only falls into the 60% to 70% range of accuracy. Any fantasy gamer that spends a reasonable amount of time doing their "homework" on players can figure out an average over the last 3 seasons without having someone else spell it out for us. What I want to see from a fantasy baseball publication or site are some "real" projections. I want to see some writers that have access to these guys more than the rest of us coming out and saying "player X is in great shape this year and I see this as the year he goes from being a perennial .280-85-20-80-10 player to a .295-95-30-100-20 player. He told me in an interview he wants to steal more this year and given the added protection in his lineup and his attitude and approach I can see increases across the board." That is something I want to see someone go on record as saying and go across the league with and in both directions, also indicating players they feel will decline.
I have been involved with Baseball in one way shape or form going back about as far as I can remember, over 30 years... thanks Dad! Over the course of my tenure with America's past time I have developed a keen eye for talent and overall recognition of the skill set required to excel in this sport. I'm not trying to brag by saying this but I have noticed that when I see a guy early on and I feel like he has the tools and skill set to excel, more often than not those guys become stars and future fantasy studs. Since I'm not published or writing for any widely used site my skills are used primarily for my fantasy teams success and it usually stops there outside of a couple pointers to some friends or family. Essentially what I am getting at is I will use the common 3 year projections we all see and then take my personal projections for each guy based on numerous other factors, some known to all and some not, when determining how a player will perform for an upcoming season. Personally I believe that is what gives me or anyone else using a like method an edge. If we all just drafted in line with the 3 year averages and didn't use much else in the way of insight than we would all leave the draft about equal and it would be a crapshoot who would finish higher than the next. However, unless you did just use a cheat sheet provided by a given site than you will or should have a leg up.
I will say again, I want to see more "out on a limb" projections from these guys. I don't want to get responses saying so and so likes him and he thinks he could do this because if you go further to check so and so's actual numbers for what they project they never follow thru with their hunches. For once I want to see them follow thru with it. Don't get me wrong I enjoy reading what a good portion of these guys have to say and write, for instance I think for CBS Scott White is usually on the ball and writes some very intuitive articles. However I would like to see a source come out and really take a shot at some against the grain type projecting. I know the average correct probably won't be that high but if readers are at all like me they want to know if there are any other reliable sources out there that think this could be the year Jimmy Rollins declines and reflects that in their projections. Or maybe this is the year Alex Gordon hits the ground running and puts up David Wright like numbers and they put those numbers as their projections. If any of you guys want to hire me and pay me to do it I would be glad to (but I doubt that will happen). As fantasy sports continue to grow and support for it's interest escalates with more sites devoted to it and more publications coming out with "guides" for us to choose from we are getting an overkill now of the "safe" projections. Start providing sources that take that chance and clue us in better to when a player will have a career year by actually predicting it with numbers to go with the statement of "this guy may be poised for a career year". Anybody can say that and just fall back on the safe numbers when it comes time to project the stats so start walking the walk after all that talk.
If anyone actually reads this novella and is interested in some of "my" projections let me know. I'd be glad to oblige. That's all I got for now though.
Posted on: March 19, 2009 6:17 pm
Hey fellow fantasy baseball drafters,
For some of us it has been a while since we banked on a particular player only to see him go right in front of us. While for many I'm sure it happens every time you draft. Don't be ashamed it can happen to even the best of us. A while back I came up with a way to protect against this from happening and no it is not your already documented "tier" system of drafting or even "best player available". Both of those can still leave you second guessing when it comes time for your pick. I must state that my advice or theory does imply that the rest of your "prepping" is complete and you know your players.
Without stringing you along any further here is what I suggest for those that want to set themselves up for their "best" possible draft. Quite simply take how many teams are in your league and draft for each team as if it was your own. Yup, its as simple as that. With each pick you should be taking the guy that you feel should go there as if it was your actual pick. It is best to do this before you know where your team will actually be drafting because when you know that info you may cheat your other teams picks as if to allow for the best case scenario (that's bad). By taking your top guy with each pick for each teams needs you will by the time you are done have what you can also use as an overall ranking of how you view all of the players you feel should be drafted in your league as well. So not only do you wind up with a mock draft that should provide with appropriate gauges on where guys should fall it also allows you to see how you rank each position from top to bottom.
Finally as draft day comes you find out where exactly you are picking. You check your "mock draft" and see what kind of guys you could be looking at. Now here comes the best part. I know full well that everyone in your league or any league is not going to draft just the way you did your mock draft however when they do that it allows for guys that you had "drafted" ahead of your next potential choice to fall to you. At that point you know that should be a good value pick. Now obviously you are not going to take Aramis Ramirez over Dan Uggla just because you have him ranked over him if you already have David Wright and Evan Longoria at 3B. What you will see though with having that list overall and for your "pre-draft" team is that there will be more than one option and you will always be either ahead of what you figured you would have to pick from or right around that selection.
I don't want to say everyone can't use this method because they can but it generally works better for those that have spent the time going thru and being confident with all of their rankings for players. Fantasy drafts are like anything else in life in that the better prepared you are for a situation the better the results will be. Look at this as one more way to take you to that next step. By the way, as we all know, there are plenty of ways or methods to do that with. I just figured in a time of number crunching analysis to the point you cant sleep at night I would share a good practice that uses your hard fought number crunching results to benefit you come draft time and hopefully help make it that much more enjoyable. I am one of those guys that thinks the draft is one of if not the most enjoyable part of the season... but that's just me.
Good luck to all!!!
Posted on: March 16, 2009 5:56 pm
How do you guys feel about trades that occur in keeper leagues between an owner making a push for the title and one throwing in the towel so to speak and building for next year and beyond?
I have seen plenty of "on the surface" deals that would have you scratching your head but when the keeper part of the equation is factored it than everything is alright... or is it?
Let me know some of your experiences and how you feel overall when you see these deals.